Submitted by Michael Noonan – Edge Trader Plus
Sunday 8 December 2013
We are not a source for or fans of endless statistics, like the number of ounces
purchased from one period over another, how many ounces are available at the
Comex, how many ounces have been mined, the demand for v the production of
silver, etc, etc, etc. Too boring.
It may satisfy many to know this information, but we are more interested in what
translates into results, where can a market turn be determined, where price is likely
to go, etc, etc, etc? This is where the challenge lies, for it comes down to timing in
order to enter or exit a market, seeking profit opportunity in the process.
Knowing the exact number of ounces that stand for delivery says nothing about when
to act on that information. The numbers have been low for some time, and bullish, as
well, but if one went long on that concrete factual information, one could have sustained
some hefty losses, at least in the futures market. Buying and holding the physical is a
different matter and done for materially different reasons.
We prefer to follow what the market has to say about what all others are saying about the
market, and opinions on the market are boundless. The actual number of participants
who make an active buy or sell trade decision is what can be read from a chart, in the form
of price and volume. It is the language of the market and how it speaks.
For all of the discontinuity between unprecedented demand and artificially suppressed
“supply,” the charts have been the most accurate barometer, as price rallied to the highs
of $50, as well as back down to the $18 area.
Will silver lead gold in the next rally, or not? Which will bottom first? In some ways, it
does not matter because the turnaround time factor will be very close. Here is how we
read current price conditions in silver and what the market is saying about them.
The higher time frames are more controlling and take more effort to turn. The monthly
is great for establishing a context, and it is the preferred chart for smart money movers.
They are not interested in day-to-day, and especially intra day activity, where the public
spends most time and effort. In fact, not many traders ever look at a monthly chart.
By adding what may be some of the most important lines to capture and define
developing market activity helps formulate knowledge of the trend and even its
character, strong or weak, trending or moving sideways. The objective is to find any
existing synergy between different time frames, which does not always happen.
The horizontal line at 26 was important support, and once broken, it has now become
important resistance, whenever price returns to it. The next step was to draw a channel
to see how the decline is developing within the obvious down trend. Concurrent with
price location in the down channel, we see it is also returned to what was a base from
which price rallied to the high at $50.
Two factors stand out. 1. price is staying close to the upper channel line and not the lower
channel one. In a weak market, expect price to be near or exceeding the lower line.
2. The lows of the decline are staying above the previous support area, denoted by the
rectangular box. It is a relatively positive sign when support is found atop a previous
Looking at the bar activity alone, the strong rally bar, 5th from the right, is being
corrected by 4 months to retrace what 1 month accomplished to the upside. Wide-range
bars tend to offer support. In a weak market, support tends to be at the lower end of the
bar, and that is where price is, as of the week just ended.
To get a better handle on what it may mean, we next look at a weekly chart. The month is
still early, so no weight can be placed on it with 3 more weeks to go, although the last time
price declined to this level, 6 months ago, the range was small and led to the rally just
The focus is going to be current price activity, and not past. The first arrow, on the left, is
the low for the month of August and the start of a strong 4 week rally. It has taken all of
14 weeks to retrace the 4 week gain. In a down market, you would expect the reverse, 4
weeks down and a labored 14 week rally, so this is a subtle message of which to be aware.
Last week being the 6th straight bar down, most of the closes were on the lower end of
each bar. This last one has a close at mid-range. What that suggests is the presence of
buyers overcoming sellers, at the low. A look at the daily will provide more confirmation
or denial of that conclusion.
You can at least see a degree of harmony in activity between the two higher time frames.
The chart comments address how support did indeed come into the market, strongly from
the lows, 3rd bar from right. The next two bars were inside bars. What we take away
from Friday’s activity, the last bar, is a lower open and lower low from Thursday, but an
ability to rally and close above the opening and just above mid-range the bar, a sign that
buyers were more in control than sellers. Otherwise, price would have closed lower.
The conclusion to be drawn is respect for the trend, clearly down. Where we have shown
a positive “spin” on the character of price behavior at the current lows, that is still where
price is, at the lows. One can not be bullish here by any stretch of the imagination.
If silver is to find a bottom, whether current levels hold or not, it will take months for a
base to develop from which price can launch a sustained rally. The one exception would
be a “V-Bottom” rally where price simply takes off without building a base and accelerates
higher. That is always a possibility.
As for taking a position in the futures, it cannot be from the ling side, for it would be
against the prevailing trend in all time frames. As to buying physical silver, we are likely
looking at a price level that will not be revisited in the next few generations. Price may
still go lower, to some degree, but what the Federal Reserve is doing to destroy the fiat
currency and the economy makes asking the question of to buy physical or not a
We cannot state strongly enough to buy, and personally hold as much silver as you can.
The stage is set. Do not be fooled by the suppressed price of silver. Common sense says
it will not last. No one knows how long it will take to end. Be prepared, for it is likely to
get uglier than most expect, but the rewards will be great. Silver buyers already know that.